2013年6月25日 星期二

統一:消費者只會撿便宜,我不認為食品安全會有太大的進步

 

很中肯啊,有甚麼好生氣的?人家只是很明白的把現況跟統一為什麼敢拿翹講出來而已。

我想大部分人都知道義美的布丁跟統一的布丁相比,誰比較真材實料吧?問題是當統一連續鬧出塑化劑跟毒澱粉兩個食品安全的大新聞,布丁下架又調整配方重新上架並打出買一送一的口號後,消費者是買哪一家的單呢?又有多少人去認真地看過統一布丁調整配方後的成分是甚麼?

反正多數人的答案就是:吃個東西為什麼要這麼認真去研究弄得這麼累?這些不就是政府要管的嗎?我不管啦!反正我就是要用便宜的價格買到好的東西!其他我都不管!

現在的食品早就不是以前那樣純粹的環境了,為了供應全世界的大量人口食物所需,越來越多的東西添加在食物裡面,以前是噴灑藥物或使用抗生素大量生產,現在則更進一步的使用化學物質。在全地球環境逐漸惡化,人口越來越多,你真的認為就這麼大的地球還有足夠的空間提供天然的食物嗎?

當消費者自己都不好好關心自己花錢買了甚麼,自己吃下肚的是甚麼東西的時候,我不覺得消費者有資格去幹剿廠商為什麼不用好一點,起碼是安全的原料去生產食品。因為你們自己做了選擇啊!當同樣的產品,有廠商提供比較好的商品但是價格比較貴,而另一家的價格便宜但是之前因為食品安全鬧得人心不寧的時候,你們還是嘴巴臭幹剿皮包很誠實買了比較便宜的廠商商品,那你有甚麼資格去幹剿廠商?廠商又為什麼要改用好的原料生產?反正我不管做錯甚麼事,低頭一下等到風聲一過,我用更低的成品來推出商品,你們還是乖乖的買單啊!那我怕甚麼?

其實也不用發起甚麼按讚或是向統一討公道的甚麼網路活動或言論,那些都是假的,真的有力的工具就在消費者手上,只要消費者盡可能不要去統一超商、康是美、星巴克跟酷聖石等地方消費,甚麼都不用多說統一就會怕。問題是現在這個弔詭的社會呢,依然勇氣十足的繼續買,就如同我這兩個禮拜到信義誠品去看書,肚子餓去找東西的時候,依然看見許多人在排隊買酷聖石跟21世紀,以及明知道那個杯蓋容易產生不良的化學物質,但是依然排隊購買星巴克的消費者。(對了,我現在連21世紀都戒掉不吃了)

說好聽點,就是進擊的勇者消費者,說難聽點,這不是消費者自己犯賤嗎?明知道廠商的原料有問題,被抓到還擺出一副自己就是受害者的嘴臉,但是你還是買它的單,那也沒啥好怨食品安全出問題。

較低收入者不在討論範圍,我不太相信真的花錢去買好一點的原料生產的食品,會真的排擠到一般消費者多少的收入。除非你就是甚麼都不願意犧牲,不想少唱KTV不想少看電影不想少買幾個CHANEL跟LV的包包.........

那就沒啥好說的。但同樣的,在你抱怨為什麼廠商可以這麼囂張、為什麼市場上的食品好像越來越不安全的時候,請捫心自問:你的荷包可曾給過那些用好的原料做食品,但是價格同樣也比較貴的廠商機會?

如果你自始至終都是以價格為考量,那就不要怨怪這個惡劣的消費環境,因為這樣弔詭的鬼島現象,你也親手推了一把。

2013年3月10日 星期日

2013年 WBC 小記

 

好了,都結束了。關於中華隊的經典賽,還有這次經典賽所有的討論,不管是生氣、不滿、嘲笑甚至於酸人,從明天開始,在我的FB上都不會再有了。甚麼國際認證啊、外角連發啊、都不會看到了,明天開始,我就要回到那個在現實生活裡裝無知,不管聽到甚麼都不回應的我了。

不過在這之前,我要先聲明:我並沒有想要鬥倒誰。相對的,如果我對於這樣的過程完全沒有這樣的情緒,那只表明了一件事:我從頭到尾都沒有關心這系列經典賽,甚至連看都不想看。

我已經忘記了,上次跟這一票喜好棒球的好友們一起在臉書上為了國家隊一個漂亮的Play歡呼,或者是為了一個調度一起抓狂罵人是甚麼時候。更多的時候,我們是用等著在旁邊看好戲,甚至就如同一般人所講的,是用嘲諷跟帶酸的語氣在講述球賽,比如:「X!果然還是派潘威倫對大陸,洪X中又忘記把腦袋帶來球場了嗎?」「X的哩,才三局就在點?吳思X一定在外野牆對著休息室打暗號啦!」
而這次我們除了酸人跟罵人以外,我們最多的情緒是甚麼呢?

是憤怒,巨大的憤怒跟惋惜,這可能是我們這一掛球友以往很難體會到的。以往大都酸完等著看笑話,但是這次簡直就想要去放火燒球場。因為即便只是短期,只打一場甚麼都有可能的國際賽,這一支中華隊憑藉著自己的能力跟素質,做到了過去十年那支中華隊未曾做到的事情,紮紮實實的把日本跟韓國逼入死局,即便有一點運氣成分,但它們就是真刀真槍的幾乎達成了。

在王建民及郭泓志沒有全盛時期的壓制能力,也沒有陳金鋒這種讓日本隊看到就會怕的殺手棒(雖然現在的陳金鋒已經沒有隻手遮天的能力),但是這支中華隊打線在面對能見篤史、田中將大這種大家都覺得會讓打線吃土,而且在前期也被壓制的情況下,打線把分數討回來了,雖然不多,但是這條中心打線的連綿攻擊能力,是值得讚賞的。

如果不是那幾個Magic的調度跟換人的話。

我必須說謝長亨在去東京前跟去東京後的調度完全是兩個不同的人。在台灣打的經典賽,他的調度雖然還是有不完美的地方,但都是可以討論的,幾乎沒甚麼看到以往那種一看見就想直接把電視關掉,然後覺得台灣棒球真的落後日本五十年,我們有生之年大概都打不贏日本那種感覺。

但是去了東京之後,一切回歸常軌,尤其從某個換人開始,我已經不想講是哪個調度了,反正大家都知道我想講的是哪一個,那種中職流教練的調度方式又回來了。

1、還沒贏到手的球賽覺得差不多到手了,就開始盤算後面要怎樣弄才會有投手,所以整個先發陣裡面第二好的潘威倫,就在這種思維下丟不完一局,然後複賽再也沒機會用到他了

2、一出局一壘有人,依然豪邁地下達點球戰術,把僅剩下的兩名出局數大方用掉了一個。

3、我實在是不太能理解,張正偉是有比周思齊跑得快多少?跑一個壘包可以快一秒?在他明明還輪得到一次的打擊機會,而且只有兩分領先日本的時候,你就這麼肯定周思齊不用再上來打了然後把他換下去?那個可能用不上的零點幾秒,比起如果你被追平(兩分對日本也不是甚麼保險差距,一個人上壘追平分就上來打擊了)周思齊上來的攻擊破壞性,真的值得這樣換嗎?

當我們這樣講時,有人說我們結果論,有人說那是輸了才這樣,贏了我們就甚麼問題都沒有。我要說的是這些問題一直都在,這幾個問題討論了也好幾年了,只是贏球的時候根本就不會有人想要去檢討,覺得「球賽都贏了,啊你們要求那麼多是要怎麼樣?」輸球的時候又說我們結果論,我實在很不能理解,那到底甚麼時候可以來看一下球賽打得不好的地方?

我們從來不覺得我們對棒球懂得多少,相對的,在棒球數據跟運動科學發展越趨精細的現在,我們都還是認為我們對棒球懂得太少,但是這並不代表我們對棒球是一無所知,棒球並不是只有表面上打球這樣簡單的動作跟訓練。在資料庫、影像處理跟數據分析發展更加精細的現在,打棒球的確不只是算數據跟算數學,還有很多臨場狀況,但是你無法否認,透過這些有系統並具有條理的分析轉化出來的數據跟結果,可以輔助球場上的決策以及更多精細的運用,例如打者的習慣、投手的球路特性以及對方球員的特色,幫助投捕臨場配球甚至是球員守備站位,能更加的有所本,而選擇最有效率或者是最能發揮球員能力的方式。

而這些不就是你們口中的情蒐嗎?

當你們講著:「棒球不是這麼簡單的」、「這麼行人家為什麼不請你當教練,你們怎麼還坐在這裡?」我們也很不能理解:棒球的確不簡單,我們不是科班出身,我們沒辦法指導球員動作、沒辦法教它們怎麼選球跟打擊,所以我們開始研究與棒球相關的數據領域。但就連不靠棒球吃飯,只是把棒球當作生活極大的興趣與娛樂的我們都可以花時間去研究了解的東西,為什麼十年過去了,重複的錯誤依舊不斷的在球場上演?以前說我們太過武斷,而現在我們變成了馬後炮?
我們沒有否定中華隊的表現,相對的,這樣的憤怒跟惋惜正是因為我們知道球員盡了全力,而且球員的水準的確一直在進步,而我們希望透過這次的「雖敗猶榮」值得討論的部分檢討修正,會變成下一次進步的表現。或許還是飲恨,或許是力克,因為別的國家也在進步,但只要台灣的棒球有在進步,球迷就會有更高水準的球賽可以看。

面對失敗跟不完美從來都是痛苦而不愉快的,但是只有面對這樣的不愉快,了解自己的不足與拙劣之處,才能讓自己更好。

Thank you. 中華棒球隊。

2013年3月8日 星期五

WBS 2013 世界棒球經典賽 中日之戰感想

 

其實看了十幾年的棒球,我覺得我應該已經要習慣了,可是為什麼每次看見中華隊教練Magic跟耍白爛的調度的時候我還是會想翻桌?

這場沒有甚麼雖敗猶榮這件事,這場我們是可以紮實贏下來的,或許有一些運氣成分,但這場本來是可以贏下來的。他X的那群在靠杯郭泓志的人,說又是他給了日本反攻機會的人給我閉嘴!你明明有著最好的武器,結果因為你的捕手亂配球不僅敗掉了整個場面,還讓你莫名其妙地成了戰犯的時候,你如果看不懂就不要隨便亂靠杯郭泓志!

林泓育守備不好,是哪門子的守備不好?如果你只是聽從球評在那邊亂唬爛,又覺得大隻的人跟國際賽經驗少的人就是蹲不好捕,那你一輩子就只能看中華隊永遠在這邊上演飲恨或是雖敗猶榮的戲碼。王建民今天的狀況絕對沒有好到可以壓制日本六局無失分,跟王建民搭配的捕手是誰?郭泓志的curve一直會偏高,但是高志綱一直重複他的錯誤,老在要命的時候叫郭泓志拿他最爛的球路跟人家拚,然後老是外角連發的配球,這樣有叫比較好?這場比賽這條打線完全展現出可以跟日本職棒一流球員一拚的能力跟素質,結果呢?從高志綱上來開始風雲變色,一切大走樣,這些就是甚麼?棒球場上一個錯誤的調度,就可以讓你從天堂到地獄,尤其是這種短期賽制的高強度比賽,一個調度錯誤就全部吃屎。想想看八局一三壘有人無人出局,為什麼連一分保險分都拿不下來?高志綱十局那一支安打有個鳥用?因為依照正常狀況走下去,那支安打根本就不會出現!

這群球員今天已經夠了,每一個都表現得無話可說。唯兩個該給我去面壁的,就是謝長亨跟高志綱!明明可以贏下來的球賽,卻被教練一個錯誤調度整場翻船,還有比這個更幹的嗎?

葉君璋跟陳俊秀快回來吧!這支國家隊需要你們去趕走那群腦袋打鐵食古不化的老頑固教練團啊!

WBC 2013 世界棒球經典賽 中韓之戰短評

 

其實打到這樣已經很夠了,死在本來預期最穩的雙RP手上,說真的也沒啥好怨的,這樣還輸得甘願一點,如果第五局CF不是林哲瑄,直接死在王鏡銘手上,不甘心的人應該更多吧?

好了說得直接一點,能去東京的確很爽,雖然台灣跟荷蘭就算去了東京很可能就是被日本跟古巴清場打包回家的兩隊,但是這種短期賽制的球賽,只要肯拚甚麼都是有可能的,反正就去打打看吧!

還是要借一下神樣學長兼前輩的老話:鬼島球員的天分一直都在,問題大多是在教練身上。這條Lineup應該是近十年來打擊最好的一支中華隊,雖然還是會看到令人腦充血的擺短棒,不過是擺在還能忍受不砸電視的範圍,我覺得就算進步了,以前是看到只想關電視然後一直噴髒話的那種等級(例如洪一中跟吳思賢這兩位....)

第八第九局我們看到了甚麼呢?就是打者對於頂級速球的對抗能力不同,南韓打者面對郭泓志的速球完全不畏懼而且能掌握擊球點(當然高志綱讓人不甚理解一直call hanging breaking ball的配球也給了韓國隊機會-..-,最後兩局這樣搞我寧願讓林泓育上來蹲還比較好),然後我們面對韓國closer的145+快速而且「會跑」的直球的攻擊能力明顯較為不足,即便是陽岱鋼也是被輕鬆解決。當然整條打線比起前幾年已經進步很多了,之前國際賽中華隊打線被大家戲稱為四不打:左不打右不打快不打慢不打,而且直球只要衝得上140大概就等著被宰了,今年這條打線好好歹歹要人家丟到145才能壓制,對於鎖定的變化球也能掌握住,這已經是個進步了。

不過殘酷一點來了,今年這個中華隊出場表現讓大家印象深刻的?

投手:王建民(前洋基、國民,現FA)、郭泓志(前道奇,現FA)、陳鴻文(前小熊小聯盟)、陽耀勳(日職軟銀)、羅錦龍(前洛磯小聯盟)、潘威倫(中職統一)

打者:陽岱鋼(日職火腿)、林哲瑄(紅襪小聯盟)、郭嚴文(前紅襪小聯盟)、陳鏞基(前水手、運動家小聯盟,現役統一)、彭政閔(兄弟)、林智勝(Lamigo)、張建銘(義大犀牛)、林泓育(Lamigo)、周思齊

結果到最後,教練團敢用而且推出來的大多還是旅外過的投手,潘威倫這個中植本土第一王牌扛了好幾年,到了國際賽中職能推出來讓人放心的還是只有他一個;打者有四個喝過洋墨水,彭政閔不評論,他很好,可是他原本能比現在更好,林智勝接受過洋教練的教導後開始變身,張建銘有附帶穿上中華球衣戰力加成屬性,超自然現象太難解釋XD 周思齊則是完全不鳥兄弟打教那一套自己聘請私人訓練員後脫胎換骨

而韓國跟日本的球員,有多少球員是留在自己國家職棒打球還能有如此表現並維持如此的競爭力呢?

外國的月亮不一定比較圓,但看見了旅外球員跟本土球員的差距(頂級球員不在比較範圍內,這些旅外球員也不是大聯盟頂級球員),還有這些球員的養成過程及持續進步的地方在哪裡?為什麼國外可以,而我們堅持這麼久的「我們有我們的玩法」,雖然也養出了一些不錯的人,但是中間有多少好材料在還沒綻放光芒前就死掉?更別說郭泓志那個傷痕累累的左肩膀是何時埋下的後遺症?有興趣的去查查他在南英是怎麼被操的?

WBC是個棒球慶典,能打進八強也是讓人開心的事。但在這個愛國情緒衝到頂點的慶典裡,我們是不是能從裡面思考得到一些東西?就算中華隊在東京真的奇蹟般的打進四強,台灣的棒球實力難道就真的是世界前四了嗎?
台灣的球員素質真的很棒,在一個兩千多萬人的小島,能產出這一批讓美國小聯盟看上並願意簽約培養的人,以及在日職發光發熱的球員,這是一件非常不容易的事。體能跟體格真的無法跟老外相比,但是在很多數據跟科學化的方法輔助跟訓練下,台灣出品的棒球人還是可以成為頂尖的好球員。問題只在於這批主事者跟教練願不願意放下自己腦袋跟學了幾十年快要可以成為骨董的老觀念,去看看頂尖的棒球國家的訓練方式跟觀念,我認為這才是WBC給予各個參賽國家的最大意義。

雖然輸給韓國還是很不爽,不過還是要說:謝謝你們,中華隊,好好前進東京,去享受這幾場比賽吧!輸贏不是你們該在意的,也不必覺得非得打到甚麼成績才沒有辜負球迷,只要盡了全力去打這幾場比賽,就夠了。因為這幾個禮拜你們帶給球迷的,已經遠遠超過勝負了。

2013年1月22日 星期二

慈濟內湖開發案

 

【歷史】慈濟在內湖擁有一塊保護區。本來是一塊有儲水能力的塘埤,後來有人非法填土變成平地,而後1997年才被慈濟購入。慈濟一直想利用這塊土地蓋醫院或是興建慈濟志工大樓,但16年來居民持續反對,甚至也公投反對成功過。
但是慈濟仍然要在保護區上蓋建築物,因此向台北市政府申請將「保護區」改成「社會福利區」,如此就能名正言順的使用土地了。

【問題】由於這塊土地被非法填土,嚴重失去吸收水量的功能,會將洪水排擠到他地,使得大湖國小附近每逢颱風災情連連,甚至造成居民傷亡,也發生過一家三口淹死的悲劇。慈濟應該讓保護區立即恢復納水功能,而把「保護區」變更成「社會福利區」根本不能解決問題。

另外,慈濟要在保護區蓋上自己的建築,但是這一區是順向坡、斷層且地質脆弱,而且慈濟設計的滯洪區小到無法發揮暫時集水作用,保護區實際上是承受不了慈濟的建設。一旦市府讓慈濟申請變更土地成功,可能會造成低窪地區(住家)淹水更嚴重、大湖公園捷運線下方無預警坍方、後山農民作物收成更困難等等憂慮。

【新聞】《慈濟施壓撤廣告? 何日生:看報才知道》
http://newtalk.tw/news/2013/01/17/32946.html

 

我只想說一件事:慈濟本身是怎樣的團體,跟慈濟做一件事情的對錯沒有任何關係。不管是怎樣的人,他每做一個決定跟每做一件事情,都是一個獨立事件,就跟我們小學學的丟骰子一樣。


慈濟以前做了多少好事,跟現在它們做的任何一件事都沒有關係,不要拿甚麼慈濟以前做了多少善舉、在國際受過多少讚譽來合理化它所做的行為,這個一點相關性都沒有。更何況現在的慈濟早就不是以前的慈濟了。

我敬佩慈濟那些在底下默默行善的人,那些身體力行、默默將自己的辛苦所得捐給慈濟,相信慈濟可以將它們辛苦的所得拿去給需要的人。但是慈濟上層的師兄師姐是甚麼嘴臉你們知道嗎?我不否認那些師兄師姐還是有一些好的人,但現在大多數慈濟的高層在做些甚麼呢?也就是一些有名有勢的人,藉著參加慈濟這個表面上高尚的慈善團體,進行彼此的人脈交換及互相聯繫,說的好聽是彼此互相交流,講得難聽一點其實根本就是個老鼠會。覺得參加了這個團體讓自己的形象高尚起來,真的要做善事根本就不需要通過慈濟這個團體,台灣、大陸甚至非洲,你都可以透過直接的物資給予,通過慈濟只是想以此求名,甚至透過這樣的舉動去認識這個社會金字塔尖端的人。

何日生說看報才知道,你是看報才知道廣告「已經」被撤下來這件事吧?你對於慈濟內部會對於廣告商施加壓力這件事情毫不知情?我真的建議你自己摸著你的良心,對天發誓你對於慈濟內部會透過各種管道干涉這件事情真的毫不知情,我很想問你敢不敢。你公開承認慈濟對於這樣的言語有所不滿,有對公車業者表達希望撤下廣告的立場,我還會佩服你們敢做敢當。一個慈濟的發言人都可以大言不慚這樣公然宣示這種聽起來一點邏輯都沒有的事,在裡面那些看起來道貌岸然,口口聲聲感恩慈悲的人是個甚麼樣的嘴臉,我想大家應該心裡有數。

我不管慈濟你之前做過多少好事,要在內湖這塊地蓋大樓,你就拿出環評報告出來,不要一聽到環評就在那邊找理由五四三拼命閃。拿著慈善的大旗在那裏為所欲為,既要做XX又要立牌坊,你們對得起被你們高舉在上,對於你們所作所為不甚清楚的證嚴上人之名嗎?要不然你們請出證嚴上人啊,讓證嚴上人跟居民面對面談話,在你們口中證嚴上人是菩薩、是偉大的宗教領袖,你們對於她遭到大家誤會表現得痛心疾首,既然如此,在你們心中聞聲救苦的菩薩跟一般民眾見上幾面有這麼難嗎?還是現在慈濟大了,上人地位高了,就對跟一般民眾見面這種事情嗤之以鼻,只對見災民或者國外窮苦民眾這種有鎂光燈聚焦的事情才有興趣呢?

2013年1月15日 星期二

DEEP LEAGUES 2013 TOP 100 PROSPECTS

 

http://www.deepleagues.com/2013/01/09/2013-top-100-prospect-list/

不廢話,直接貼水手新秀,六位入圍。


9. Mike Zunino (C, SEA) – Personally, I think he’s the best catching
prospect in the minor leagues. He dominates in college. And then goes and has
a 1.137 OPS in 44 minor league games (Low-A for 29, AA for 15) with 13 home
runs. He’s got no defensive sticking questions, so he’s my top catcher and
could be a top 3 fantasy catcher for years.


10. Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA) – Walker was one of the youngest pitchers in AA
this year. His scouting reports were clean and good from the scouts, but the
numbers said differently. He’s still regarded as a potential TOR arm, and I
don’t think many if any have soured on him. He could be a fantasy ace in the
future, albeit with some risk attached.

 

30. Danny Hultzen (SP, SEA) – I don’t think I’m that low, and most have
questioned his 4.29 FIP in AAA and his control problems. He’s not a
fireballer, so control issues make him look like a good #3 starter to me. He’
s always been a high floor guy, and his stuff will play up in Petco,
depending on the fences. He’ll be a reliable starter in the majors for
years, but don’t expect fantasy dominance.


55. Nick Franklin (SS, SEA) – Franklin is a guy I keep my eye on. I own him
in a league and I think he can be a successful MLB 2B. If he moves to 2B, his
bat will be average to slightly above average. If he’s able to stick at SS,
he can likely be a good bat and fantasy relevant every year. He’s a switch
hitter and he’s still developing and very young, so I actually wouldn’t
mind seeing a full year of AAA for Nick before I hand him over to the
Mariners.

 

56. James Paxton (SP, SEA) – Paxton had a great year in 2012. He more than
held his own in AA and looks like a good future #2 starter, maybe a #3. I
think he ends up a #3 starter with the occasional great year that reminds you
of all his talent. His stuff will play up in Safeco, and boy does he have
stuff. A hard fastball from the left side and a great breaking ball cap off a
strong arsenal. I’d buy if you can, because of the combination that he could
be in the majors soon (Seattle has little pitching depth) as well as his home
park (ask Tommy Milone how much home parks are factors). He’s a buy now guy,
and I could see him higher on my list if he starts hot.


100. Brad Miller (SS, SEA) – A popular “sleeper” labeled by most, Miller
did hit well. Many are continually comparing Miller to Nick Franklin, the
other Mariners SS. Miller has questions if he will stick at SS or have to
move off (likely to 2B), but for now he’s a SS. The reason he’s nearly 50
spots lower than Franklin is partly age (he’s a year and a half older) and
level (he’s a level lower). I think he could still jump up more on the
prospect list, but I don’t see him in Franklin territory…yet.

2013年1月6日 星期日

Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2013—By John Sickels

 

http://t.co/PDI3Enk3

1) Mike Zunino, C, Grade A-: Complete catcher, either the best catching
prospect in baseball or second-best behind Travis D'Arnaud. Power, patience,
defense, great makeup. Does everything.

2) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Grade A-: Some slippage in his numbers, but that's
forgivable for the youngest pitcher in the Double-A Southern League. Still
has premium combination of fastball, breaking stuff, developing changeup,
high upside.

3) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Grade B+: I will be honest, I am not comfortable with
Hultzen's grade or his placement here and may revise it significantly before
the book goes to press. I think it is a mistake to dismiss his Triple-A
struggles too cavalierly. His command was just too poor at that level for us
to ignore, especially given his past reputation and track record. I'm nosing
around about this one and gathering more info and opinion, so stand by.

4) James Paxton, LHP, Grade B+: He still has occasional command troubles but
the stuff is first class, love the 92-95 fastball and big-breaking curve.
Number two starter upside. Very good season in Double-A (3.05 ERA, 110/54
K/BB in 106 innings).

5) Nick Franklin SS, Grade B+: I trust my eyes on this one, good tools across
the board and the skills are in there. Is he a second baseman or a shortstop?
I'd give him a chance at short. Needs another half-season in Triple-A
following .243/.310/.416 line at Tacoma.

6) Brad Miller, SS, Grade B+: I am actually more confident in his bat than I
am in Franklin's, but he's a year and a half older and that matters. Still,
if anything Miller is underrated nationally. He can really hit
(.320/.406/.476 in Double-A) and he has the range/arm for shortstop if he can
cut down on routine errors.

7) Brandon Maurer, RHP, Grade B: Finally healthy and showed what he could do
with four-pitch arsenal and mid-90s fastball, 3.20 ERA with 117/48 K/BB in
138 innings. Next stop, Triple-A. If he stays healthy, he's a number three
starter.

8) Victor Sanchez, RHP, Grade B: Youngest pitcher in Northwest League held
his own against older hitters at age 17 (3.18 ERA, 69/27 K/BB in 85 innings).
Lacks physical projection at 6-0, 255, but already throws hard. Will truly
dominate when breaking stuff improves.

9) Stefen Romero, 2B, Grade B: Not a tools guy, but just hits and hits and
hits including .347/.392/.620 in Double-A. He's not bad at second base, but
with other middle infield options around in this organization he may shift to
a corner.

10) Carter Capps, RHP, Grade B-: Always tough to know how to grade relievers.
Former catcher hits 99 MPH and reached the majors within a year of being
drafted. Needs command refinements, but definite closer upside.

11) Stephen Pryor, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Like Capps, tough to grade.
Stuff is almost as good as Capps, and he's another guy with closer potential
if the command sharpens up a bit more.

12) Luis Gohara, LHP, Grade C+: At this point the C+ guys are interchangeable
depending on what you want to emphasize, so please no whining about "you
should have ranked #12 at #16 and #20 at #13." Gohara is a 16-year-old
Venezuelan lefty signed for $800,000 this past summer. He's enormously
projectable and generated loud buzz in instructional league. He could turn
into anything from a number one starter to an injured A-ball washout, but
keep his name in mind. You might hear a lot about it next summer.

13) Gabriel Guerrero, OF, Grade C+: Vlad Guerrero's nephew tore up the
Dominican Summer League, looked good in three weeks of rookie ball, and
offers a similar package of tools to his uncle. That doesn't mean he will
become his uncle, of course; bloodlines only take you so far (ask Preston
Mattingly), but his upside clearly bears watching.

14) Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, Grade C+: Played four years of football at Rutgers,
but despite years of rust he thrived when he went back to the diamond last
spring, then hit .301/.373/.511 in the Northwest League. He strikes out a lot
and is understandably raw for a college guy.

15) Leon Landry, OF, Grade C+: Toolsy LSU product acquired from Dodgers in
Brandon League trade, runs well, gap power, good glove, hit well in
California League. Profiles as fourth outfielder or platoon partner.

16) Julio Morban, OF, Grade C+: Cal League "breakouts" can't be fully
trusted, especially at High Desert, but Morban looks like the best of the
batch of power-hitting Latin American outfielders with bad plate discipline
that the Mariners spent a lot of money on over the last few years.

17) Tyler Pike, LHP, Grade C+: Very projectable lefty was bought away from
Florida State scholarship, showed three-pitch mix in rookie ball. Another
mid-rotation upside arm.

18) Carson Smith, RHP, Grade C+: Dominated Arizona Fall League (2.40 ERA,
18/4 K/BB in 15 innings). Great slider, could follow Pryor and Capps into
Mariners bullpen soon. Posted 2.90 ERA with 77/28 K/BB in 62 innings at High
Desert, 54 hits, 2.34 GO/AO. Do you know how hard that is?

19) Anthony Fernandez, LHP, Grade C+: Four-pitch lefty posted 3.68 ERA with
79/14 K/BB in 88 innings at High Desert. Do you know how hard that is? He
looked good in Double-A too (3.32 ERA with 55/24 K/BB in 76 innings). Not
overpowering but knows how to pitch.

20) John Hicks, C, Grade C+: Very athletic catcher hit .312/.351/.472. It was
at High Desert though, so don't assume that will hold. Stole 22 bases, threw
out 54% of runners. Has strike zone issues and needs to improve blocking, but
an intriguing player.

OTHER GRADE C+: Logan Bawcom, RHP; Vince Catricala, 3B; Timothy Lopes, 2B;
Jack Marder, C-2B

OTHERS: Taylor Ard, 1B; Jabari Blash, OF; Matt Brazis, RHP; Jin-Man Choi, 1B;
Edwin Diaz, RHP; Josephy DeCarlo, 3B; Roenis Elias, LHP; Jabari Henry, OF;
James Jones, OF; Bobby LaFramboise, LHP; Marcus Littlewood, C; Tyler
Marlette, C; Jamodrick McGruder, 2B; Yoervis Medina, RHP, Guillermo Pimentel,
OF; Steve Proscia, INF; Jordan Shipers, LHP; Chris Taylor, SS; Carlos
Triunfel, INF.


The major league team isn't winning, but the minor league system is filled
with talent of all varieties and help will be arriving soon.

On the pitching side, you have Walker, Paxton, and the enigmatic Hultzen
leading the pack, with Maurer not far behind. You also have fireballing
relievers Capps and Pryor who are ready now, plus more bullpen arms on the
way backing up the starters. Although I wouldn't count on any of the starters
being fully ready until 2014, few systems have this many potential starting
pitchers this close to being ready for the majors. Victor Sanchez and Luis
Gohara provide additional long-term upside arms as the Mariners maintain
their emphasis on Latin American talent

That focus has worked well for them on the pitching side, but hitting has
been weaker as many of their Latin American imports (Carlos Peguero, Carlos
Triunfel, Guillermo Pimentel, Phillips Castillo, plus Francisco Martinez and
Johermyn Chavez acquired in trades) have failed to thrive. This seems like a
systemic problem. Fortunately, they have drafted well and bats like Mike
Zunino, Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller will be ready within the
next year. And there is plenty of material at the middle and lower levels of
the system, both in terms of future role players and potential regulars.

Everyone always mentions the problems caused by the extreme hitting
environment in High Desert, but that isn't just a matter of statistical
distortions. Some hitters have developed bad habits with their swings that
don't work well at higher levels, and it certainly doesn't do a lot for the
confidence of pitchers. That said, any pitcher who survives in that
environment, let alone thrives, is someone to watch carefully even if they
don't have great scouting reports.

Overall, despite player development issues that need to be looked at, this is clearly one of the deepest, richest farm organizations in baseball.

2個A,8個B。應該有全聯盟農場排名前五的實力。